One of the most worrying aspects is the level of under-counting that will be happening. The Financial Times put together a sobering review of the data, with unwanted new world records being set for new confirmed cases in one day. Less than 10% of the Indian population has had a COVID vaccine. But the proportion of the population that is immunised is still very low, and alas, there are more than enough susceptible people for the virus to keep spreading. India has locally made vaccines, which are being rolled out, including the AstraZeneca vaccine. The stories of a collapsing health system are numerous, with reports of a lack of oxygen for hospitalised patients and bodies burning on pyres in the streets. India is a catastrophic example of a population that has certainly not reached herd immunity against COVID-19. There is no doubt that a humanitarian emergency is unfolding in India right now. The World Health Organization described the idea as “scientifically problematic and unethical”.

These proposals have been widely decried by health experts, including in the John Snow memorandum. We have seen approaches to naturally acquired herd immunity proposed as high-profile ideas for public policy in the UK and internationally, such as the Great Barrington declaration. The optimism is alas always misplaced and occasionally used irresponsibly. We have seen this before in Manaus, Brazil, and in India. There have been many predictions about how many people have had COVID-19 and whether or not this or that country has reached herd immunity.

India covid 19 crisis